After the votes were counted, the results were announced and the acceptance speeches were given this Election Day, New York’s newly elected leaders weren’t the only ones cheering. Don Levy, Ph.D. and his colleagues at the Siena Research Institute had reason to celebrate as well. Their polling was perfect.
The Siena Research Institute accurately predicted the winners in all 15 races it polled this election season, including three statewide races – governor, attorney general and comptroller – seven hotly contested New York congressional races and five state senate contests.
“We were thrilled to call 15 out of 15,” said Siena Research Institute Director Don Levy, Ph.D. “Our entire team worked for months conducting background research, building partnerships with media outlets, drafting the surveys, constructing our likely voter and turnout model, conducting the surveys, analyzing and finally releasing the data.”
SRI partnered with several media outlets throughout the state to conduct polls on the highly competitive races, including NY 1, Time Warner Cable News, Capital New York, Syracuse.com/ The Post-Standard, WWNY/Watertown and Newsday.
“Political polling can be a hazardous process, particularly because there are so many partisan operations out there that use the guise of polling to push their agendas. As a news outlet, we need polling that gives us the fairest, most accurate assessment of what's going on on Long Island,” said Benjamin Weller, Newsday assistant managing editor/politics. “Siena has consistently provided us with that service -- whether it is for a political horse race or on issues that are important to our readers. While the accuracy of (SRI’s) Long Island polls sometimes have been challenged by those candidates who were trailing, come Election Day the naysayers have been proven wrong.”
In both of the congressional races and the state senate races, the unique niche that Siena Research Institute has developed during the last several election cycles, and in which SRI provides the only public polling, it called each of winners within or at the poll’s margin of error.
“Political polling, especially in congressional and state senate districts, where in many cases we are the only non-partisan researcher, is not easy,” Levy said. “Every year we see changes in the electorate whether it is their mood, ideology or the impacts of technology, and we strive to consider all those variables as we poll, interpret and release.”
WWNY News Director Scott Atkinson said working with SRI was one of the pleasures of covering politics. “Not only was the poll of NY 21 spot on, it was great fun to work with (SRI), to chew over the election, to think about interesting stuff. I hope we get to do this dance again,” said Atkinson.
SRI’s success in predicting this year’s election results led the political website City & State to name Levy one of its post-election winners, stating, “When the Siena Research Institute began releasing polls over a month ago showing state Senate Democrats trailing badly in key battleground races, party officials scoffed. When the pollster found Rep. Michael Grimm way ahead of Domenic Recchia, and Lee Zeldin beating Rep. Tim Bishop, and John Katko up by double digits over Rep. Dan Maffei, critics raised doubts about voter turnout models and tried to undercut Siena by dredging up examples of where it got it wrong. On Election Day, however, Siena and polling director Don Levy were 15 for 15 in picking the winners.”
City & State is the only media company to solely cover government and politics in New York. It was created two years ago by the merger of City Hall and The Capitol newspapers.
“Given the dramatically low turnout this year as well as the increasing difficulty of developing a representative sample due to cell phone penetration and the reluctance of some voters to speak to any pollster, SRI’s accomplishments this year are particularly impressive,” said Siena College Vice President for Development and External Affairs David Smith ’79.
SRI has seen success far beyond the polling done for the 2014 election. The historical accuracy and methodology of its polls were evaluated and graded by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight Politics website. FiveThirtyEight graded Siena an A-, the highest grade given to any college or university pollsters.
“I appreciate the opportunity and support the college provides in this endeavor as well as the chance to conduct polling, much of which is inspired by our mission,” Levy said. “Work with various government agencies, non-profits and corporate sponsors that many people don't hear about, is another fascinating and fruitful component of our work at SRI.”
Click here to learn more about the Siena Research Institute.
